THE famous speaker draws a hefty crowd, but little enthusiasm. Farmers and residents of Gorakhpur, a scruffy, fast-growing market town in eastern Uttar Pradesh (UP), have waited for hours in a wintry wind to hear him, weather-beaten old men huddling for warmth at the front. “I have no expectation,” says one of these. “I’ve only come to see.”
Rahul Gandhi’s stump speech (brief and earnest) earns few cheers. The heir both to the Gandhi-Nehru dynasty and the ruling Congress Party pledges a state government for UP of all castes and tribes. Rolling up his sleeves and jabbing a finger in the air, he talks of fighting corruption. He gets a single chuckle by telling of an elephant that chomps government money meant for the poor—a blunt reference to Mayawati, the charismatic teacher-turned-chief minister, whose wealth has attracted as-yet unproven accusations of massive graft.
It is hard-going for any politician in this fly-blown corner notorious for organised crime, smugglers and tense Hindu-Muslim relations. Gorakhpur made headlines late last year for an outbreak of encephalitis that killed over 640 people, mostly children. Alongside signs of new prosperity—the temptations along its clogged streets include the “He Man Hair Parlour”—abject poverty persists.
Mr Gandhi hurtles through three other rallies, then four the next day farther south, and so on. He has campaigned in UP for much of the past year, promising more welfare and land rights for the rural poor and talking up “Mission 2012”: reversing Congress’s meagre fortunes in India’s most populous state, with 200m residents. An election for the state assembly rolls out over the coming four weeks.
Congress had largely floundered in UP since the rise in recent decades of Ms Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party, which appeals to low-caste dalits and (for a time) upper-castebrahmins feeling squeezed. Today Congress wants to repeat its performance in the 2009 general election, when it nabbed 18% of votes in UP, a decent share given fragmented voting in the state, partly by talk of dishing out rural welfare. This time round, such a result would probably return Congress to state government, after 22 years away, as a needed junior partner to the Samajwadi Party (SP).
Led by Mulayam Singh Yadav, a political gadfly and former defence minister, the SP (backed by lower castes, but not the lowest) might then return the favour by allying with Congress at a national level. A tempting cabinet post in Delhi would sweeten the deal. It would give the government of the prime minister, Manmohan Singh, desperately needed legislative clout, and fresh sway over some troublesome allies. Just possibly, it might cause some long-stalled policy reforms to flow.
If that sounds optimistic, consider that at least one political figure, not in Congress, expects the party to spring an even greater surprise in UP. On this analysis, Mr Gandhi’s dogged campaigning, especially among young, first-time voters, will win the party a notably higher share of votes than before. In that event, calls will only grow for Mr Gandhi to take on a bigger job, such as Mr Singh’s.
Much is uncertain. The main national opposition, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), seems to be making little impact. Its member of parliament in Gorakhpur, Yogi Adityanath, a surly man in woolly hat and saffron robes, prefers to talk about the desperation of his own party (for accepting a corrupt defector from Ms Mayawati’s camp) rather than bash his opponents.
Nor is it clear how far Ms Mayawati’s star has fallen since her clear victory in 2007. Educated, high-caste types relish her setbacks. The Electoral Commission told her to shroud many of the statues of elephants (her party symbol) and of herself that dot the state. On the eve of the polls, she sacked several ministers as officials exposed a shameful $1.2 billion scandal in a rural health scheme. Tens of millions of people remain stuck in a sink of feudalism, repression and hunger.
She can point to some gains, nonetheless. Her biographer, Ajoy Bose, says that dalits, whom he suggests are “prone to totemism”, feel their dignity lifted by the many statues of dalit symbols. Violent crime and communal tension are down sharply since the early 2000s, when hoodlums of the then-ruling Samajwadi Party took over police stations. A man from western UP, now working in Delhi, says Ms Mayawati has brought electricity to his village and has done more than anyone for the “depressed and suppressed”.
The state economy has also done pretty well, growing by some 7% a year recently, roughly India’s average (though gains per person lag behind). Public finances are improving, and Ms Mayawati has overseen the building of 200,000 homes for the poor, free bicycles for schoolgirls, extra power stations and the construction of India’s Formula 1 racetrack.
Shifting sands
Though the chief minister may have lost sway among brahmins, she can still probably expect loyalty from her core dalit backers, a fifth of the state. That is despite efforts by Mr Gandhi, who likes to be seen eating with the low-caste and who tries to break off sub-castes among them with targeted promises—for example, by offering to set up special institutes for boatmen, fishermen and carpenters.
Uttar Pradesh is only one of five states—though by far the biggest—holding assembly elections. Turnout of over 80% was reported as Manipur (in the north-east) and Punjab and Uttarakhand (both in the north) voted early this week. It suggests Indians are far from tired of electoral democracy, despite some excited commentary in the aftermath of street protests last year against corruption. Tiny Goa will also vote on March 3rd, with all results due on March 6th.
These results in turn will feed other big elections. In April a new clutch of 58 members of the upper house of the national parliament, the Rajya Sabha, will be elected (by the state assemblies). Then in July, both houses of parliament, plus all the state assemblies, must elect someone as India’s president, with a five-year term.
Some speculate that Mr Singh might also step down as prime minister before long, leaving the way clear for a younger leader to battle for Congress as campaigning looms for the next general election, in 2014. Just maybe, somewhere between all the campaigning, there will be time for some governing too
Rahul Gandhi’s stump speech (brief and earnest) earns few cheers. The heir both to the Gandhi-Nehru dynasty and the ruling Congress Party pledges a state government for UP of all castes and tribes. Rolling up his sleeves and jabbing a finger in the air, he talks of fighting corruption. He gets a single chuckle by telling of an elephant that chomps government money meant for the poor—a blunt reference to Mayawati, the charismatic teacher-turned-chief minister, whose wealth has attracted as-yet unproven accusations of massive graft.
It is hard-going for any politician in this fly-blown corner notorious for organised crime, smugglers and tense Hindu-Muslim relations. Gorakhpur made headlines late last year for an outbreak of encephalitis that killed over 640 people, mostly children. Alongside signs of new prosperity—the temptations along its clogged streets include the “He Man Hair Parlour”—abject poverty persists.
Mr Gandhi hurtles through three other rallies, then four the next day farther south, and so on. He has campaigned in UP for much of the past year, promising more welfare and land rights for the rural poor and talking up “Mission 2012”: reversing Congress’s meagre fortunes in India’s most populous state, with 200m residents. An election for the state assembly rolls out over the coming four weeks.
Congress had largely floundered in UP since the rise in recent decades of Ms Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party, which appeals to low-caste dalits and (for a time) upper-castebrahmins feeling squeezed. Today Congress wants to repeat its performance in the 2009 general election, when it nabbed 18% of votes in UP, a decent share given fragmented voting in the state, partly by talk of dishing out rural welfare. This time round, such a result would probably return Congress to state government, after 22 years away, as a needed junior partner to the Samajwadi Party (SP).
Led by Mulayam Singh Yadav, a political gadfly and former defence minister, the SP (backed by lower castes, but not the lowest) might then return the favour by allying with Congress at a national level. A tempting cabinet post in Delhi would sweeten the deal. It would give the government of the prime minister, Manmohan Singh, desperately needed legislative clout, and fresh sway over some troublesome allies. Just possibly, it might cause some long-stalled policy reforms to flow.
If that sounds optimistic, consider that at least one political figure, not in Congress, expects the party to spring an even greater surprise in UP. On this analysis, Mr Gandhi’s dogged campaigning, especially among young, first-time voters, will win the party a notably higher share of votes than before. In that event, calls will only grow for Mr Gandhi to take on a bigger job, such as Mr Singh’s.
Much is uncertain. The main national opposition, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), seems to be making little impact. Its member of parliament in Gorakhpur, Yogi Adityanath, a surly man in woolly hat and saffron robes, prefers to talk about the desperation of his own party (for accepting a corrupt defector from Ms Mayawati’s camp) rather than bash his opponents.
Nor is it clear how far Ms Mayawati’s star has fallen since her clear victory in 2007. Educated, high-caste types relish her setbacks. The Electoral Commission told her to shroud many of the statues of elephants (her party symbol) and of herself that dot the state. On the eve of the polls, she sacked several ministers as officials exposed a shameful $1.2 billion scandal in a rural health scheme. Tens of millions of people remain stuck in a sink of feudalism, repression and hunger.
She can point to some gains, nonetheless. Her biographer, Ajoy Bose, says that dalits, whom he suggests are “prone to totemism”, feel their dignity lifted by the many statues of dalit symbols. Violent crime and communal tension are down sharply since the early 2000s, when hoodlums of the then-ruling Samajwadi Party took over police stations. A man from western UP, now working in Delhi, says Ms Mayawati has brought electricity to his village and has done more than anyone for the “depressed and suppressed”.
The state economy has also done pretty well, growing by some 7% a year recently, roughly India’s average (though gains per person lag behind). Public finances are improving, and Ms Mayawati has overseen the building of 200,000 homes for the poor, free bicycles for schoolgirls, extra power stations and the construction of India’s Formula 1 racetrack.
Shifting sands
Though the chief minister may have lost sway among brahmins, she can still probably expect loyalty from her core dalit backers, a fifth of the state. That is despite efforts by Mr Gandhi, who likes to be seen eating with the low-caste and who tries to break off sub-castes among them with targeted promises—for example, by offering to set up special institutes for boatmen, fishermen and carpenters.
Uttar Pradesh is only one of five states—though by far the biggest—holding assembly elections. Turnout of over 80% was reported as Manipur (in the north-east) and Punjab and Uttarakhand (both in the north) voted early this week. It suggests Indians are far from tired of electoral democracy, despite some excited commentary in the aftermath of street protests last year against corruption. Tiny Goa will also vote on March 3rd, with all results due on March 6th.
These results in turn will feed other big elections. In April a new clutch of 58 members of the upper house of the national parliament, the Rajya Sabha, will be elected (by the state assemblies). Then in July, both houses of parliament, plus all the state assemblies, must elect someone as India’s president, with a five-year term.
Some speculate that Mr Singh might also step down as prime minister before long, leaving the way clear for a younger leader to battle for Congress as campaigning looms for the next general election, in 2014. Just maybe, somewhere between all the campaigning, there will be time for some governing too
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